JeffDBracket's Bracketology - Version 8.0 - 2/28/11

Jimmer Fredette and BYU's win over SDSU may have given them a #1 seed

With only minutes until the calendars turn to the magical month of March, this current season of NCAA men's basketball remains crazier than ever. With top teams continuing to fall left and right, and bubble teams consistently playing themselves in and out of the NCAA Tournament, everything remains very unclear. 

If you take a look at the bracket, despite a tough road loss to Louisville in overtime, I still have Pittsburgh as my early National Champion. In a treacherous environment in Louisville, the Panthers overcame a rough start and, with help from a cheerleader, nearly pulled off the victory an overtime victory. Even with the loss, the Panthers still showed in the late stages of the game why they are so good. Brad Wannamaker hit clutch shot after clutch shot to finish off Pittsburgh's comeback and send the game to overtime. On the defensive side of the ball, Gary McGhee led the charge with key defensive stops to allow the Panthers back into the game, and a game saving block at the end of regulation. It may seem like a stretch to praise a team after a loss, but on the road in the Big East, any game that you comeback in and almost win deserves some praise. Turnovers and missed free throws were killer for Pittsburgh, but every team is allowed to have a few slipups. When on their game, Pittsburgh has shown this season that they are the deepest, most consistent and most physical team in the country. Until someone truly exposes them and beats them down within the next two weeks, they will be hard to pick against as National Champions.

My three other Final Four teams, St. Johns, Brigham Young and Ohio State all finished off their weeks with strong wins. The Cougars of BYU, led by non-other than Jimmer Fredette, swept their season season with San Diego State with a convincing performance in California. The Aztecs played sloppy and nervous all game long, but it was BYU's 14 three-pointers that really stung San Diego State in the end. I still think both teams can make a Final Four run, but with BYU in line for a #1 seed they seem like the better choice right now. The Buckeyes started the week with a tough loss at Purdue, but ended with two dominating performances over Illinois and Indiana. Sullinger and company led the Buckeyes to an eventual #1 ranking after winning both games by a combined margin of 40-points. The last Final Four team, the St. John's Red Storm, is most likely the biggest question mark on my bracket. It is only February, so taking risks in a bracket aren't very hard, but I don't view St. John's to the Final Four as much of a risk. With two weeks remaining, don't be surprised if they can crawl all the way up to a top two or three seed. Sometimes it is good to ride the hot hand into the NCAA Tournament (ie - Butler last season), and St. John's would be a good example of that. Since a three-game Big East losing streak, the Johnnies have knocked off Duke, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Marquette, Pittsburgh and Villanova. Steve Lavin's squad also has found a new skill: three-point shooting. The Red Storm have two easy games against Seton Hall and South Florida before entering the Big East Tournament, a tournament that they may dominate. St. John's has beat five RPI Top 20 teams at home in Madison Square Garden this season, the same location of the Big East Tournament. If St. John's can somehow make a long run through the conference tournament next week, they may become very serious Final Four contenders.

The bubble continues to amaze when it comes to mediocrity, and it is surely going to change yet again within the next couple days. On Wednesday, there will be another bracketology update that will be accompanied by a big bubble watch post. Keep an eye on the last four teams in and the first eight teams out within the next couple of days.

Upset Special - Belmont Bruins - The Bruins do not have the strongest schedule this season, but in their three games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt (they played Tennessee twice) they showed they could hang close with the big boys. Last season Murray State did not knock off any big-time opponents throughout the season, however upset Vanderbilt as a 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Much like Murray State, Belmont has loads of depth and talent. Ian Clark, Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders led the charge as double digit scorers for a Belmont team that goes nine to ten guys deep on any given night. The Bruins also hold the most dangerous weapon for any mid-major team: good three-point shooting. With almost 300 three-pointers, good for second in the nation, the Bruins have a high octane, and efficient offense this season. Belmont was seconds away from knocking off Duke as 15-seed back in the 2008 NCAA Tournament, and looks this year to not only win their first game, but to work their way into the second week of the NCAA Tournament.

Read more after the jump

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JeffDBracket's Bracketology - Version 7.0 - 2/18/11

The bubble is loaded this year with less than a month until Selection Sunday

After a two week hiatus, the brackets are back on the site. A lot has changed in terms of teams, but little has changed in terms of the craziness of this season of NCAA Basketball. There is a large handful of double digit at-large candidates this year that are vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Due to the insane amount of mediocrity this season throughout power conferences, the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has become an absolute mess. There are roughly 15 teams that are in serious contention for 6 NCAA Tournament slots come March. 

Those 16 teams range from mid-majors like Missouri State and Richmond, to power conference teams like Penn State and Georgia. Let's take a look at these teams and where they stand as the regular season begins to wind down.

- Marquette - (15-11, 6-7) 66 RPI - 31 SOS -

- It appears that the team that will bump the Big East to eleven NCAA Tournament bids will be Marquette. The question however is, can they get there? Marquette may have eleven losses, but every loss but one has been to a team inside the Top 25 of the RPI, with seven of them being on the road or a neutral court. Bottom line, Marquette doesn't look bad, but they certainly don't look impressive. Their victories over West Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse will go a long way, but the Golden Eagles still have work to do. They have three, what should be easy, games against Seton Hall (twice) and Providence, along with tough tests against Connecticut and Cincinnati before entering the Big East Tournament. If the Golden Eagles clean up the Pirates and Friars, and snag a win over the Huskies or Bearcats, they should find themselves in the NCAA Tournament.

- Georgia - (17-8, 6-5) 44 RPI - 32 SOS -

- After a good start to the season, Georgia has had a roller coaster ride in 2011. They've alternated wins and losses almost every-other game. After opening SEC play with a big victory over Kentucky, the Bulldogs have not been able to pick up another signature in-conference win. They blew a late two-possession lead at home to Florida in January and eventually lost in double overtime and lost to Kentucky by 6 points four days later. While they only have four Top 100 RPI wins, however all eight of their losses have been against teams in the RPI Top 35. The fact that the Bulldogs have no bad losses does make it easier to defend their place in the NCAA Tournament, but they really need to grab one or two more quality wins. They have opportunities to do so against teams like Tennessee, Florida and Alabama, but at the same time they cannot avoid to fall to South Carolina or LSU.

- Baylor - (16-8, 6-5) 60 RPI - 60 SOS -

- The Bears, early-season favorites to contend for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, started the season very slow and had been pushed off the bubble at the start of 2011. Picking up their first Top 50 RPI win over Oklahoma State, and then a second one against Texas A&M within the past month have propelled them back intro serious discussion. After an easy game against Texas Tech on the Saturday, the Bears have to face off against four teams in the RPI Top 50 to end the regular season. Baylor has a good chance to improve their resume, but can just as easily slip up and lock themselves out of the Big Dance.

- Michigan State - (13-11, 6-7) 46 RPI - 8 SOS -

- Michigan State has defined "train-wreck" at times this season, and has won only two games in the past month. Who are those wins against? Indiana and Penn State. Not very impressive. What the Spartans do have going for them is their decent RPI, and outstanding strength of schedule. Of Michigan State's eleven losses, eight of them have come to teams ranked inside the Top 40 of the RPI. Right now many people see the Spartans as a team considered in the NCAA Tournament, but they have very little wiggle room. Winning out may not be necessary for Tom Izzo's crew, but of their five remaining games you'd think they'd have to win at-least three of them to feel comfortable about their chances before the Big Ten Tournament.

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JeffDBracket's Bracketology - Version 6.0 - 2/01/11

St. John's was just one of the many teams this week to pull off a huge upset

Last week was one of the wildest weeks in the history of college basketball. If you include this past Sunday, fifteen Top 25 teams were upset over the span of last week. Whether it was Duke getting pummeled by St. John's, Providence stunning Villanova or Nebraska rocking Texas A&M, no Top 25 team was safe last week. Amazingly enough, in terms of who is in the NCAA Tournament, not many teams have changed. There were only two at-large changes from last week's bracket. Penn State and Duquesne replaced Richmond and once Final Four contender in Kansas State.

On the topic of Duquesne and Penn State, the bubble teams are all very similar and sorting them out has become pretty tough. For me the bubble teams this week came down to Penn State, Duquesne, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Washington State, Richmond, Alabama Birmingham and Colorado State. Out of those teams four teams received bids.

Gonzaga is battle tested and has been competitive throughout the season, with a strong finish they will once again find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. Wichita State is very similar, led by outstanding head coach Gregg Marshall, the Shockers have been one of the most competitive teams this season. While they have no big time wins, they haven't lost any bad games. Consistency and a battle tested team is enough for me to put them in the NCAA Tournament. Duquesne is currently undefeated in the Atlantic-10 conference, so it is hard to not put them in the NCAA Tournament. The Dukes have close losses to teams like Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Penn State, but have wins over strong Atlantic-10 teams like Temple and Dayton. Their resume isn't outstanding, but to be undefeated in a competitive Atlantic-10 conference is enough for me to put them in as of right now. The big question is if Duquesne can keep their surprising success going. Finally, Penn State has found themselves in the thick of the bubble talk. Their out of conference slate has landed them on the bubble, because if it wasn't for their horrid early season start they would be far from the bubble conversation. Their run through Big Ten play with wins against Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin, along with near wins at Ohio State and Purdue has improved their resume in a huge manner. The Nittany Lions have a lot to do to stay in the NCAA Tournament, but as of right now I think they have done enough to get in.

Now for the first four teams that did not make it in - Richmond has fallen back a bit in the NCAA Tournament talk after a blow-out loss to Xavier this past weekend. The Spiders have a big win over Purdue on their resume, but their losses to Iona and Georgia Tech are holding them back. There are still opportunities left for the Spiders to improve their resume, but their time is quickly running out. A team on the rise however is Alabama-Birmingham. The Blazers have a few bad losses, but more than a handful of solid Top 100 RPI victories so far this season. Close losses against teams within the Top 50 of the RPI have legitimized Alabama-Brimingham to an extent, but they need to cash in on almost all of their remaining games to become a solid NCAA Tournament team. Colorado State has also quietly crept onto the bubble with a decent enough resume to survive in a down year for college basketball. The Rams haven't made the NCAA Tournament since 2003, and a few good wins so far this season have put them in the bubble discussion. Their issue has been trying to overcome two bad sube RPI Top 100 losses. With two games against San Diego State and games against BYU and UNLV before the season ends, Colorado State has many opportunities to make their resume NCAA Tournament worthy. A team I can't quite understand is Washington State. Most people across the country seem to think that Washington State is already worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid. As much as the RPI matters, the eye test matters more for me. From what I have seen in Washington State, I cannot say I am very impressed. Wins against the likes of Baylor and Portland may look good in terms of RPI, but anyone that has watched those two teams knows they are not considered elite. The other thing I struggle with is the fact that they are in the Pac-10. As of right now they are only 5-4 in a conference that is considered one of the weakest so far throughout this season. Sure, their recent win against Washington was good, but that is the first time they have really impressed me. Out of the three other teams who have just missed the cut, they have the simplest road to the NCAA Tournament. All they need to do is consistently win the rest of the way out, that is just one of the perks of being in a power conference.

Before we go to the brackets, let's dip into the Final Four teams that I have selected. All year I have said that, depending on the draw, I will put either Brigham Young or San Diego State in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars get the better draw this week, therefore I got them going all the way to Houston. Both Texas and Ohio State have been outstanding this year, but I struggle to make them my National Champion right now. The Buckeyes have been tested lately by teams like Penn State, Michigan and Northwestern. They did beat Purdue with much ease last month, but it will take a little more dominance from the undefeated Buckeyes to convince me they are good enough to raise the hardware in April. When it comes to dominance, Texas has been able to define what that means so far in Big XII conference play. The Longhorns have won all of their conference games by double digits against competition like Kansas, Missouri and Texas A&M. My only issue with picking Texas to win it all is the Big XII conference. How good is the Big XII? From what I have seen, not very good. I think Texas is an elite team, but they're like a Big East team playing in the Ivy League right now. It is hard to really gauge how good the Longhorns really are against what appears to be potentially overrated competition in the Big XII. Texas is good though, they had impressive out of conference victories, and close losses to Big East powers Connecticut and Pittsburgh. It is clear that they are good, we will see in March if they are truly good enough. Speaking of Pittsburgh, it is time to talk about the team I have predicted to win it all yet again. The Panthers, inside and out, are the most balanced team in the country, and when they play their game they're nearly impossible to beat. In the Big East they will get exposed and falter at times, but great teams learn from their tough losses. Their resume that includes eleven Top 100 RPI victories over the likes of Texas, Connecticut, Syracuse and Georgetown, is enough for me to crown them National Champions for the third week in a row. 

The rest of the bracket is after the jump