How good is San Diego State?

SDSU is already a Top 10 team only 1 month into the season

     For years the Pac-10 conference and its darling team UCLA have dominated basketball in California. Since three Final Four appearances from 2006 to 2008, Ben Howland and the Bruins have fallen off the map, and with it went the reputation of the Pac-10 conference. If not for a Cinderella-like finish in the Pac-10 tournament from Washington, the Pac-10 conference would’ve most likely only had one NCAA Tournament bid last season. Three teams made the NCAA Tournament from the state of California last season: California, Saint Mary’s and San Diego State. As an 8 seed California knocked off Louisville in the first round, 10 seeded Saint Mary’s made an upset run to the Sweet 16 and 11 seeded San Diego State lost in the final seconds to Tennessee in the first round. Out of those three teams, only one of them has built off their tournament bid of 2010 and has themselves primed and ready for a deep run in the 2011 NCAA Tournament. That team is the San Diego State Aztecs.

     The real question right now is “How good is San Diego State?” When it is so early in the season it is really hard to figure out how good a team is and how they stack up to other similar competition. Throughout the year we will feature a thing called “Blind Bubble Team Resumes” on the website. This is where you compare three or four teams using RPI, poll rankings, records, neutral site records, quality wins and bad losses. You do this without knowing the identity of the teams. From there, you pick which of the teams you would put in the NCAA Tournament, and which teams you would leave out. For right now however, we will compare three teams and try and determine which one is better.

     Now that you have had time to look the teams over, try and guess which one is San Diego State. If you guessed Team B, then you guess correctly. With a 10-0 record and wins over teams like Gonzaga, Wichita State, California and Saint Mary’s, the San Diego State Aztecs have gotten off to a rather impressive start for the 2010-2011 college basketball season. With conference games against top teams like UNLV, Brigham Young and New Mexico, San Diego State will surely have a chance to improve their resume as March Madness nears.

     The reason for the chart is to see who San Diego State compares to currently, so now try and guess who teams A and C are. Team A is pre-season Final Four favorite Kansas State, while Team C is pre-season Final Four favorite Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is most likely a better team than San Diego State, but not by much. The only win that is more impressive than any of San Diego State’s is Pittsburgh 2 point victory over an unproven Texas team on November 19th.

     Kansas State on the other hand has a much more similar resume to San Diego State than Pittsburgh does. Both the Wildcats and Aztecs played Gonzaga in the CBE, and both walked away with victories. While Kansas State did beat Gonzaga by more points, they did win on a neutral location. Neutral location victories are nice, however so is beating Gonzaga at their home arena in Spokane, Washington. That is exactly what San Diego State did on November 16th. With the win the Aztecs became only the fourth team to knock off Gonzaga in their home arena since it opened in 2004. Kansas State’s other key victories over an unproven Washington State and a struggling Virginia Tech team compare pretty evenly with San Diego State’s other victories outside of Gonzaga. In fact, California, Saint Mary’s and Wichita State all have better records then Virginia Tech. While they may be better then San Diego State, the Kansas State Wildcats are not too far ahead. Both Pittsburgh and Kansas State got beat down in their only losses. Pittsburgh played on a neutral site (virtually a home game however, as it was played in Pittsburgh) and needed a late run to lose respectably to Tennessee, while Kansas State got absolutely trashed by Duke in the CBE Classic. Even with a 9-1 record, Kansas State has some puzzling single digit wins against Presbyterian and Loyola-Illinois. Meanwhile San Diego State has won all of their games by an average of 15 points.

     So you get the picture, if you were to group San Diego State with other teams in college basketball right now, you would place them with the likes of the Kansas State’s and maybe the Pittsburgh’s of the college basketball world. If 99.9% of the people who watch, coach and play college basketball believe those teams are good, then that basically answers the pending question. San Diego State is a pretty damn good basketball team. Now that it can be determined how good, at this point in the season, San Diego State is, the next question is “Why are they good?” This question is much simpler to answer. They are good for two reasons: balance and experience.

The rest of the story is after the jump

Reason #1: Balance

     In order to be a good mid-major team you need balance across the board. Top power conference teams are too deep and consistent to throw one star player at them and expect to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Even Davidson didn’t make an Elite 8 run with only Stephen Curry. They went nine to ten players deep and featured the leading assist man in the nation, Jason Richards, along with three big men in Andrew Lovedale, Boris Meno and Thomas Sander, and a slew of long-ball sharp shooters. If you can field a team with talented players that all score and contribute and large numbers, then your team is most likely going to be successful. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, two teams with these same attributes faced off in the second round: Murray State and Butler. Led by young coach Brad Stevens, the Butler Bulldogs would go on to knock off Cinderella and 13 seeded Murray State in the final seconds. Butler, a well-balanced attack across the board was able to wear down teams in every facet of the game all tournament long. Murray State meanwhile upset Vanderbilt in the first round thanks to their dynamic attack, which featured six players averaging around 10 points per game. These teams used their balance to win a combined 64 games last season, and this year San Diego State will use the same formula to fuel their potentially large success.

     Currently San Diego State has four players averaging 10 or more points, and two who are averaging just below 10 points per game. Led by sophomore Kawhi Leonard and his 16 points per game, the San Diego State offense contains firepower that is rivaled by few in college basketball. Efficiency is a key for why San Diego State has played so well so far this season as the Aztecs have shot over 50% from the floor as a team, ranking 7th in the nation. It gets even better when you break down just the six top contributors for the Aztecs and see that they are shooting an average of 54% from the floor each time they step on the court. Standing at 6-7, sophomore forward Kawhi Leonard has certainly stepped up as the leader of the Aztecs early in the season. Along with his 16 points per game, Leonard is averaging just fewer than 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals per game. Despite being one of the younger players on the team, Leonard has matured fast this season and it has paid off as he has nearly averaged a double-double. When push comes to shove, Leonard is even able to step back and hit some shots beyond the arc, as he has a netted 11 of 30 so far. As a team the Aztecs are not a three point shooting team, however guards DJ Gay and James Rahon can also step up and hit threes, as they have sent home a combined 37 shots from beyond the arc so far.

Only in his second year, Kawhi Leonard is dominating opponents

     The consistent attack on offense where the Aztecs score just under 80 points per game carries over to the defense as well, where they only give up a few more than 60 points to their opponents every game. They’re scoring margin of just under 16 points per game ranks 23rd in the nation. San Diego State ranks in the top 50 in scoring defense, and assist to turnover margin. The Aztecs will beat you on defense and force turnovers, but when on offense they are consistent and rarely make a mistake. It is pretty hard to beat a team when they don’t make mistakes, but it is especially hard to beat said team when they are as balanced and consistent across the board as the San Diego State Aztecs.

Reason #2: Experience

     When I think about experienced mid-major basketball teams in the past few years, the 2006-2007 Winthrop Eagles and 2009-2010 Cornell Big Red both come to my mind. The Winthrop team that would upset 6 seeded Notre Dame in the 2007 NCAA Tournament was loaded with experience from past tournament games, and a coach in Gregg Marshall who had plenty of NCAA Tournament experience himself. The year before as a 15 seed Winthrop lost at the buzzer to Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Hungrier then every, Winthrop went on to win 28 games and finally break through to the second round in the big dance. Like Winthrop in 2007, Cornell had also made multiple NCAA Tournaments before their run in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. A deep group of talented players, and their up-and-coming coach Steve Donahue slowly became an experience wrecking ball that blasted teams in March. As a 12 seed, Cornell knocked off Temple, Wisconsin and had a close battle with 1 seeded Kentucky in the Sweet 16. Those teams took years of experience and when the time was right, they built it into one large run in the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State not only has the right players to do the same, but they also possess a unique coach who is ready to lead them to greatness.

     Steve Fisher is no ordinary coach; he is especially no ordinary mid-major coach. In 1989 Steve Fisher took over as the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines at the end of the regular season when the head coach, Bill Frieder, accepted the Arizona State job, and was forced to leave immediately. With no head coaching experience, Fisher led Michigan to the National Championship where they knocked off Seton Hall. In the next eight years at the program, Fisher would lead the Wolverines to six NCAA Tournaments and two NIT appearances. Fisher’s teams saw the Elite 8 three times, and were National runner-ups twice. One time being the infamous Chris Webber technical foul game, when down 2 points Chris Webber called a timeout Michigan did not have with 11 seconds left in the game. The violation would kill off any chances Michigan had of winning the game. It would also be unfair to not mention the fact that Steve Fisher recruited, and signed all five players that were about of Michigan’s 1991 “Fab 5” recruiting class. Fisher was fired after the 1997 season, when off the court issues involving former recruits and players at Michigan were traced back to the former coach Bill Frieder and Steve Fisher. Fisher went on to coach in the NBA, before finally coming back to college in 1999 to coach the Aztecs.

Steve Fisher has as much NCAA experience as any head coach in the country

     As the head coach of the San Diego State Aztecs, Fisher has had loads of success. In 1999 Fisher inherited an Aztecs team that had a total of two winning records in the previous fifteen seasons. Even with a 5-23 record in his first year at the program, Steve Fisher has a winning record with the Aztecs of 198-149. In his eleven seasons at the school leading up to this year, Fisher has taken the Aztecs to three NCAA Tournaments and four NIT Tournaments. The 2010-2011 season might be his best chance yet to break through in the NCAA Tournament and advance with San Diego State. Fisher’s last two trips to the NCAA Tournament have ended with heartbreak in the final seconds, and this year he hopes to re-write San Diego State’s history. Two players who are now in their senior seasons, forwards Billy White and Malcolm Thomas, will add their experience to Fisher’s to create a team full of battle tested players and coaches.

     Like Kawhi Leonard, Thomas and White are both taller players who stand at 6-9 and 6-8 respectively. Thomas has averaged double figures in all three seasons he has played, while White has average just around 9 points per game throughout his career. The two players use their height to crash the boards, as they averaged a combined 9.9 rebounds per game. Both players have freakish athletic talent that allows them to dominate both ends of the floor. They attack with speed and ferociousness on defense, and use those same skills to turn it into points on the other end. With the ball in their hands they are very dangerous, as White and Thomas average a combined 21.8 points per game on an average of just fewer than 60% shooting from the floor. Few coaches in the coaches can supply an answer for both Malcolm Thomas and Billy White. When San Diego State throws in players like Kawhi Leonard, DJ Gay, James Rahon and Chase Tapley, they create an even bigger problem for opponents.

The Final Verdict

     When you include a National Championship coach to the six-headed monster that is San Diego State this year, you have one very good team. So I will say it again, the answer to the original question is that San Diego State is damn good. Their balance and experience are to thank for that, too. I personally think this team is good enough to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. With a good draw and a little momentum, I think my current prediction of the Aztecs reaching the Final Four is pretty realistic as well. Unfortunately, we are still quite a ways away from the NCAA Tournament, so for now we can only speculate what the Aztecs will do come tournament time in March. In the mean time, just sit back and examine, observe and watch San Diego State as they continue to rip through other teams in the current college basketball season.