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| St. John's was just one of the many teams this week to pull off a huge upset |
Last week was one of the wildest weeks in the history of college basketball. If you include this past Sunday, fifteen Top 25 teams were upset over the span of last week. Whether it was Duke getting pummeled by St. John's, Providence stunning Villanova or Nebraska rocking Texas A&M, no Top 25 team was safe last week. Amazingly enough, in terms of who is in the NCAA Tournament, not many teams have changed. There were only two at-large changes from last week's bracket. Penn State and Duquesne replaced Richmond and once Final Four contender in Kansas State.
On the topic of Duquesne and Penn State, the bubble teams are all very similar and sorting them out has become pretty tough. For me the bubble teams this week came down to Penn State, Duquesne, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Washington State, Richmond, Alabama Birmingham and Colorado State. Out of those teams four teams received bids.
Gonzaga is battle tested and has been competitive throughout the season, with a strong finish they will once again find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. Wichita State is very similar, led by outstanding head coach Gregg Marshall, the Shockers have been one of the most competitive teams this season. While they have no big time wins, they haven't lost any bad games. Consistency and a battle tested team is enough for me to put them in the NCAA Tournament. Duquesne is currently undefeated in the Atlantic-10 conference, so it is hard to not put them in the NCAA Tournament. The Dukes have close losses to teams like Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Penn State, but have wins over strong Atlantic-10 teams like Temple and Dayton. Their resume isn't outstanding, but to be undefeated in a competitive Atlantic-10 conference is enough for me to put them in as of right now. The big question is if Duquesne can keep their surprising success going. Finally, Penn State has found themselves in the thick of the bubble talk. Their out of conference slate has landed them on the bubble, because if it wasn't for their horrid early season start they would be far from the bubble conversation. Their run through Big Ten play with wins against Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin, along with near wins at Ohio State and Purdue has improved their resume in a huge manner. The Nittany Lions have a lot to do to stay in the NCAA Tournament, but as of right now I think they have done enough to get in.
Now for the first four teams that did not make it in - Richmond has fallen back a bit in the NCAA Tournament talk after a blow-out loss to Xavier this past weekend. The Spiders have a big win over Purdue on their resume, but their losses to Iona and Georgia Tech are holding them back. There are still opportunities left for the Spiders to improve their resume, but their time is quickly running out. A team on the rise however is Alabama-Birmingham. The Blazers have a few bad losses, but more than a handful of solid Top 100 RPI victories so far this season. Close losses against teams within the Top 50 of the RPI have legitimized Alabama-Brimingham to an extent, but they need to cash in on almost all of their remaining games to become a solid NCAA Tournament team. Colorado State has also quietly crept onto the bubble with a decent enough resume to survive in a down year for college basketball. The Rams haven't made the NCAA Tournament since 2003, and a few good wins so far this season have put them in the bubble discussion. Their issue has been trying to overcome two bad sube RPI Top 100 losses. With two games against San Diego State and games against BYU and UNLV before the season ends, Colorado State has many opportunities to make their resume NCAA Tournament worthy. A team I can't quite understand is Washington State. Most people across the country seem to think that Washington State is already worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid. As much as the RPI matters, the eye test matters more for me. From what I have seen in Washington State, I cannot say I am very impressed. Wins against the likes of Baylor and Portland may look good in terms of RPI, but anyone that has watched those two teams knows they are not considered elite. The other thing I struggle with is the fact that they are in the Pac-10. As of right now they are only 5-4 in a conference that is considered one of the weakest so far throughout this season. Sure, their recent win against Washington was good, but that is the first time they have really impressed me. Out of the three other teams who have just missed the cut, they have the simplest road to the NCAA Tournament. All they need to do is consistently win the rest of the way out, that is just one of the perks of being in a power conference.
Before we go to the brackets, let's dip into the Final Four teams that I have selected. All year I have said that, depending on the draw, I will put either Brigham Young or San Diego State in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars get the better draw this week, therefore I got them going all the way to Houston. Both Texas and Ohio State have been outstanding this year, but I struggle to make them my National Champion right now. The Buckeyes have been tested lately by teams like Penn State, Michigan and Northwestern. They did beat Purdue with much ease last month, but it will take a little more dominance from the undefeated Buckeyes to convince me they are good enough to raise the hardware in April. When it comes to dominance, Texas has been able to define what that means so far in Big XII conference play. The Longhorns have won all of their conference games by double digits against competition like Kansas, Missouri and Texas A&M. My only issue with picking Texas to win it all is the Big XII conference. How good is the Big XII? From what I have seen, not very good. I think Texas is an elite team, but they're like a Big East team playing in the Ivy League right now. It is hard to really gauge how good the Longhorns really are against what appears to be potentially overrated competition in the Big XII. Texas is good though, they had impressive out of conference victories, and close losses to Big East powers Connecticut and Pittsburgh. It is clear that they are good, we will see in March if they are truly good enough. Speaking of Pittsburgh, it is time to talk about the team I have predicted to win it all yet again. The Panthers, inside and out, are the most balanced team in the country, and when they play their game they're nearly impossible to beat. In the Big East they will get exposed and falter at times, but great teams learn from their tough losses. Their resume that includes eleven Top 100 RPI victories over the likes of Texas, Connecticut, Syracuse and Georgetown, is enough for me to crown them National Champions for the third week in a row.
Who made the bracket:
American East - Maine
Atlantic Coast - Boston College, Duke*, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Atlantic 10 - Duquesne*, Temple, Xavier
Big East - Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh*, St. John's, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - Coastal Carolina
Big Ten - Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State*, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII - Kansas, Missouri, Texas*, Texas A&M
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth
Conference USA - Memphis*
Horizon - Butler, Cleveland State*
Ivy - Harvard
Metro Atlantic - Fairfield
Mid-American - Kent State
Mid-Eastern - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Missouri State*, Wichita State
Mountain West - Brigham Young, Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State*
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Pacific-10 - Arizona, Washington*, UCLA
Patriot - Bucknell
Southeastern - Florida, Georgia, Kentucky*, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southern - Charleston
Southland - McNeese State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic
Souhtwestern - Texas Southern
Western (WAC) - Utah State
West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's*
* - Automatic Bid
Italic - New Addition
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Conference Bids
Big East - 11
Big Ten - 7
Atlantic Coast - 5
Southeastern - 5
Big XII - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic Ten - 3
Pacific-10 - 3
West Coast - 2
Colonial Athletic - 2
Horizon League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
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Bracket Notes
Last Four In
- Wichita State
- Gonzaga
- Penn State
- Duquesne
First Four Out
- Washington State
- Colorado State
- Alabama-Birmingham
- Richmond
Next Four Out
- Kansas State
- Maryland
- Alabama
- George Mason
Also Considered
- Baylor
- Oklahoma State
- Nebraska
- Clemson
- South Carolina
- Portland
- Northwestern
- New Mexico
1st Round Games
12 - Penn State vs. Wichita State
12 - Duquesne vs. Gonzaga
16 - Texas Southern vs. McNeese State
16 - Long Beach State vs. Montana
New Additions (Power Conferences)
- Duquesne
- Penn State
Dropped Out (Power Conferences)
- Kansas State
- Richmond
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NCAA Tournament Seeding
#1 Seeds -
- Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas, Duke
#2 Seeds -
- Connecticut, Kansas, Notre Dame, San Diego State
#3 Seeds -
- Kentucky, Georgetown, Louisville, Brigham Young
#4 Seeds -
- Missouri, Purdue, Villanova, Texas A&M
#5 Seeds -
- West Virginia, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Florida
#6 Seeds -
- Minnesota, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, North Carolina
#7 Seeds -
- Washington, Illinois, St. John's, Xavier
#8 Seeds -
- Temple, Florida State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Utah State
#9 Seeds -
- Michigan State, Arizona, Cincinnati, Marquette
#10 Seeds -
- Boston College, Saint Mary's, Old Dominion, Missouri State
#11 Seeds -
- Memphis, UCLA, Virginia Commonwealth, Georgia
#12 Seeds -
- Virginia Tech, Butler, Duquesne vs. Gonzaga, Penn State vs. Wichita State
#13 Seeds -
- Oakland, Cleveland State, Belmont, Coastal Carolina
#14 Seeds -
- Harvard, Charleston, Fairfield, Kent State
#15 Seeds -
- Maine, Florida Atlantic, Murray State, Bucknell
#16 Seeds -
- Long Island, Hampton, Texas Southern vs. McNeese State, Long Beach State vs. Montana
Procedural Bumps (Seeding Adjustments) -
- Michigan State - Down to 10
- Saint Mary's - Up to 9
- Purdue - Down to 5
- Florida - Up to 4
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The Bracket
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Contact on Twitter: @JeffDLowe or E-Mail: JeffDBrackets@gmail.com
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