Monday, February 28, 2011

JeffDBracket's Bracketology - Version 8.0 - 2/28/11

Jimmer Fredette and BYU's win over SDSU may have given them a #1 seed
With only minutes until the calendars turn to the magical month of March, this current season of NCAA men's basketball remains crazier than ever. With top teams continuing to fall left and right, and bubble teams consistently playing themselves in and out of the NCAA Tournament, everything remains very unclear. 

If you take a look at the bracket, despite a tough road loss to Louisville in overtime, I still have Pittsburgh as my early National Champion. In a treacherous environment in Louisville, the Panthers overcame a rough start and, with help from a cheerleader, nearly pulled off the victory an overtime victory. Even with the loss, the Panthers still showed in the late stages of the game why they are so good. Brad Wannamaker hit clutch shot after clutch shot to finish off Pittsburgh's comeback and send the game to overtime. On the defensive side of the ball, Gary McGhee led the charge with key defensive stops to allow the Panthers back into the game, and a game saving block at the end of regulation. It may seem like a stretch to praise a team after a loss, but on the road in the Big East, any game that you comeback in and almost win deserves some praise. Turnovers and missed free throws were killer for Pittsburgh, but every team is allowed to have a few slipups. When on their game, Pittsburgh has shown this season that they are the deepest, most consistent and most physical team in the country. Until someone truly exposes them and beats them down within the next two weeks, they will be hard to pick against as National Champions.

My three other Final Four teams, St. Johns, Brigham Young and Ohio State all finished off their weeks with strong wins. The Cougars of BYU, led by non-other than Jimmer Fredette, swept their season season with San Diego State with a convincing performance in California. The Aztecs played sloppy and nervous all game long, but it was BYU's 14 three-pointers that really stung San Diego State in the end. I still think both teams can make a Final Four run, but with BYU in line for a #1 seed they seem like the better choice right now. The Buckeyes started the week with a tough loss at Purdue, but ended with two dominating performances over Illinois and Indiana. Sullinger and company led the Buckeyes to an eventual #1 ranking after winning both games by a combined margin of 40-points. The last Final Four team, the St. John's Red Storm, is most likely the biggest question mark on my bracket. It is only February, so taking risks in a bracket aren't very hard, but I don't view St. John's to the Final Four as much of a risk. With two weeks remaining, don't be surprised if they can crawl all the way up to a top two or three seed. Sometimes it is good to ride the hot hand into the NCAA Tournament (ie - Butler last season), and St. John's would be a good example of that. Since a three-game Big East losing streak, the Johnnies have knocked off Duke, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Marquette, Pittsburgh and Villanova. Steve Lavin's squad also has found a new skill: three-point shooting. The Red Storm have two easy games against Seton Hall and South Florida before entering the Big East Tournament, a tournament that they may dominate. St. John's has beat five RPI Top 20 teams at home in Madison Square Garden this season, the same location of the Big East Tournament. If St. John's can somehow make a long run through the conference tournament next week, they may become very serious Final Four contenders.

The bubble continues to amaze when it comes to mediocrity, and it is surely going to change yet again within the next couple days. On Wednesday, there will be another bracketology update that will be accompanied by a big bubble watch post. Keep an eye on the last four teams in and the first eight teams out within the next couple of days.

Upset Special - Belmont Bruins - The Bruins do not have the strongest schedule this season, but in their three games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt (they played Tennessee twice) they showed they could hang close with the big boys. Last season Murray State did not knock off any big-time opponents throughout the season, however upset Vanderbilt as a 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Much like Murray State, Belmont has loads of depth and talent. Ian Clark, Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders led the charge as double digit scorers for a Belmont team that goes nine to ten guys deep on any given night. The Bruins also hold the most dangerous weapon for any mid-major team: good three-point shooting. With almost 300 three-pointers, good for second in the nation, the Bruins have a high octane, and efficient offense this season. Belmont was seconds away from knocking off Duke as 15-seed back in the 2008 NCAA Tournament, and looks this year to not only win their first game, but to work their way into the second week of the NCAA Tournament.

Read more after the jump


Who made the bracket:
American East - Vermont

Atlantic Coast - Duke*, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

Atlantic 10 - Temple*, Richmond, Xavier

Big East - Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh*, St. John's, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big Ten - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State*, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big XII - Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas*, Texas A&M

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - George Mason*, Old Dominion

Conference USA - Alabama-Birmingham

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

Metro Atlantic - Fairfield

Mid-American - Kent State

Mid-Eastern - Bethune-Cookman

Missouri Valley - Missouri State

Mountain West - Brigham Young, Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State*

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pacific-10 - Arizona, Washington, UCLA

Patriot - Bucknell

Southeastern - Alabama, Florida*, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southern - Charleston

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic

Southwestern - Texas Southern

Western (WAC) - Utah State

West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's*

* - Automatic Bid
Italic - New Addition
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Conference Bids
Big East - 11
Big XII - 7
Big Ten - 6
Southeastern - 6
Atlantic Coast - 4
Mountain West - 3
Pacific-10 - 3
Atlantic Ten - 3
West Coast - 2
Colonial Athletic - 2
Horizon League - 1
Missouri Valley - 1
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Bracket Notes
Last Four In
 - Colorado
 - Michigan
 - Baylor
 - Alabama

First Four Out
 - Penn State
 - Boston College
 - Memphis
 - Colorado State

Next Four Out
 - Minnesota
 - Wichita State
 - Clemson
 - Nebraska

Also Considered
 - Texas-El Paso
 - Southern Cal
 - Maryland
 - Duquesne
 - Southern Mississippi
 - Virginia Commonwealth
 - Dayton
 - Cleveland State
 - Valparaiso

1st Round Games
 12 - Michigan vs. Baylor
 12 - Alabama vs. Colorado
 16 - Northern Colorado vs. Bethune-Cookman
 16 - Texas Southern vs. McNeese State

New Additions (Power Conferences)
 - Gonzaga
 - Richmond
 - Michigan
 - Alabama-Birmingham

Dropped Out (Power Conferences)
 - Colorado State
 - Wichita State
 - Boston College
 - Memphis
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NCAA Tournament Seeding
#1 Seeds -
- Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Brigham Young

#2 Seeds -
Notre Dame, Duke, Texas, Purdue

#3 Seeds -
- San Diego State, Louisville, Wisconsin, Syracuse

#4 Seeds -
- St. John's, Connecticut, Florida, North Carolina

#5 Seeds -
Georgetown, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Arizona

#6 Seeds -
- West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M, Villanova

#7 Seeds -
Kansas State, Temple, California-L.A., George Mason

#8 Seeds -
Cincinnati, Nevada-Las Vegas, Old Dominion, Missouri

#9 Seeds -
Utah State, Washington, Florida State, Tennessee

#10 Seeds -
- Illinois, Virginia Tech, Michigan State, Marquette

#11 Seeds -
- Alabama-Birmingham, Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Georgia

#12 Seeds -
- Butler, Richmond, Alabama vs. Colorado, Baylor vs. Michigan

#13 Seeds -
- Belmont, Missouri State, Oakland, Princeton

#14 Seeds -
Coastal Carolina, Fairfield, Charleston, Bucknell

#15 Seeds -
- Vermont, Kent State, Long Island, Morehead State

#16 Seeds -
- Florida Atlantic, Long Beach St., N. Colorado vs. Bethune-Cookman, TX Southern vs. McNeese State

Procedural Bumps (Seeding Adjustments) -
 - Arizona - Down to 6
 - Texas A&M - Up to 5
 - Utah State - Down to 10
 - Illinois - Up to 9
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The Bracket












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Contact on Twitter: @JeffDLowe or E-Mail: JeffDBrackets@gmail.com

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