 |
| The bubble is loaded this year with less than a month until Selection Sunday |
After a two week hiatus, the brackets are back on the site. A lot has changed in terms of teams, but little has changed in terms of the craziness of this season of NCAA Basketball. There is a large handful of double digit at-large candidates this year that are vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Due to the insane amount of mediocrity this season throughout power conferences, the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has become an absolute mess. There are roughly 15 teams that are in serious contention for 6 NCAA Tournament slots come March.
Those 16 teams range from mid-majors like Missouri State and Richmond, to power conference teams like Penn State and Georgia. Let's take a look at these teams and where they stand as the regular season begins to wind down.
- Marquette - (15-11, 6-7) 66 RPI - 31 SOS -
- It appears that the team that will bump the Big East to eleven NCAA Tournament bids will be Marquette. The question however is, can they get there? Marquette may have eleven losses, but every loss but one has been to a team inside the Top 25 of the RPI, with seven of them being on the road or a neutral court. Bottom line, Marquette doesn't look bad, but they certainly don't look impressive. Their victories over West Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse will go a long way, but the Golden Eagles still have work to do. They have three, what should be easy, games against Seton Hall (twice) and Providence, along with tough tests against Connecticut and Cincinnati before entering the Big East Tournament. If the Golden Eagles clean up the Pirates and Friars, and snag a win over the Huskies or Bearcats, they should find themselves in the NCAA Tournament.
- Georgia - (17-8, 6-5) 44 RPI - 32 SOS -
- After a good start to the season, Georgia has had a roller coaster ride in 2011. They've alternated wins and losses almost every-other game. After opening SEC play with a big victory over Kentucky, the Bulldogs have not been able to pick up another signature in-conference win. They blew a late two-possession lead at home to Florida in January and eventually lost in double overtime and lost to Kentucky by 6 points four days later. While they only have four Top 100 RPI wins, however all eight of their losses have been against teams in the RPI Top 35. The fact that the Bulldogs have no bad losses does make it easier to defend their place in the NCAA Tournament, but they really need to grab one or two more quality wins. They have opportunities to do so against teams like Tennessee, Florida and Alabama, but at the same time they cannot avoid to fall to South Carolina or LSU.
- Baylor - (16-8, 6-5) 60 RPI - 60 SOS -
- The Bears, early-season favorites to contend for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, started the season very slow and had been pushed off the bubble at the start of 2011. Picking up their first Top 50 RPI win over Oklahoma State, and then a second one against Texas A&M within the past month have propelled them back intro serious discussion. After an easy game against Texas Tech on the Saturday, the Bears have to face off against four teams in the RPI Top 50 to end the regular season. Baylor has a good chance to improve their resume, but can just as easily slip up and lock themselves out of the Big Dance.
- Michigan State - (13-11, 6-7) 46 RPI - 8 SOS -
- Michigan State has defined "train-wreck" at times this season, and has won only two games in the past month. Who are those wins against? Indiana and Penn State. Not very impressive. What the Spartans do have going for them is their decent RPI, and outstanding strength of schedule. Of Michigan State's eleven losses, eight of them have come to teams ranked inside the Top 40 of the RPI. Right now many people see the Spartans as a team considered in the NCAA Tournament, but they have very little wiggle room. Winning out may not be necessary for Tom Izzo's crew, but of their five remaining games you'd think they'd have to win at-least three of them to feel comfortable about their chances before the Big Ten Tournament.
Read more after the jump
Tweet
- Boston College - (16-9, 6-5) 45 RPI - 18 SOS -
- If you want to see a team that defines mediocre, look at this years Boston College squad. Only one win in the RPI Top 50 win, and only one loss outside of the RPI Top 100. The meat of their wins and losses have come between RPI 50 and 100. Any other year the Eagles would be in rough shape in-terms of NCAA Tournament chances, but with such a poor crop of teams fighting for the final spots they may be in fine shape. The ACC is a much weaker conference this year, with games against North Carolina, Miami (FL), Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, they have some solid opportunities to lock in a good resume come Selection Sunday. With the ACC being weak though, they can't afford a sub-.500 finish to their regular season.
- Wichita State - (21-5, 13-3) 51 RPI - 121 SOS -
- Wichita State blew their chance at gaining a big resume boost on Friday night when they lost with under a second to go in their Bracket Busters game to Virginia Commonwealth. They also, while not knowing how good they were at the time, lost to Connecticut by 4 points back in November. The Shockers have no impressive wins, and carry the bagage to sub-200 RPI ranked Southern Illinois. They do play fellow bubble team Missouri State in their regular season finale, but with a resume looking worse and worse, the Shockers may need to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament to get in.
- Colorado State - (17-7, 8-3) 38 RPI - 53 SOS -
- The quietest team in NCAA Basketball this season is no doubt the Colorado State Rams. In a conference where San Diego State and Brigham Young have received all the hype, the Rams have snuck under the radar and had a nice run in the Mountain West. Early season losses to Hampton and Sam Houston State hurt their resume, but Colorado State has a handful of quality wins, including two inside the RPI Top 50. Many have a hard time getting a read on Colorado State and can't quite figure out what to do with them. A solid RPI and strength of schedule are enough for me to put them in right now, but they can impress a lot more people if they beat San Diego State or Brigham Young in one of their final five games.
- Missouri State - (21-6, 13-3) 52 RPI - 162 SOS -
- Much like Wichita State, the Bears of Missouri State are on thin ice in-terms of their chances to make the NCAA Tournament. They have a very mediocre resume with no great wins, but a few solid losses and a ton of "just okay" victories. They do have a trump card over Wichita State, as they have already beat the Shockers. The Bears have their bracket busters game on Saturday against Valparaiso. Valpo is just outside the RPI Top 50, but would be a solid win for Missouri State to add to their bland resume. Who else had a bland resume last year? Missouri State's (and Wichita State's) Missouri Valley Conference foes the Northern Iowa Panthers had a bland, but consistent resume last year as well. All they did was knock off #1 overall seed Kansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Missouri State is a tough team, and unknown star Kyle Weems has what it takes to make a run with the Bears in the NCAA Tournament, the question is: can they get there? A win over Valpo, and a win over Wichita State in their regular season finale might be enough to launch them in their first NCAA Tournament since 1999.
- Richmond - (20-7, 9-3) 69 RPI - 170 SOS -
- The Spiders carried a 20 win record into their game against Temple on Thursday night, and ironically enough got ran out of Philadelphia in a 20 point loss to the Owls. While a win wasn't an absolute must, losing by 20 points was nothing but negative towards their resume. The Spiders still have an early season victory over Purdue to hang their hats on, but since then they have not performed like last year, or like many thought they would after their win over the Boilermakers. Losses to Iona and Georgia Tech don't help the Spider's case for a bid, but they still have a few games left to improve their resume. Their season finale against Duquesne is a huge game, and if they finish 4-0 they will most likely find themselves on the inside of the bubble picture. But in an Atlantic-10 that has had wild season finishes and conference tournaments as of late, so you never know what can happen.
- Alabama-Birmingham - (18-7, 8-4) 34 RPI - 57 SOS -
- UAB needs to become friends with Missouri State and Wichita State, because much like those teams, the Blazers carry a painfully mediocre resume. Six wins inside the RPI Top 100 look good, and they have played a fairly hard schedule within the RPI Top 50. Losses to Duke, Memphis and Georgia don't exactly look good, but they don't hurt either. A loss to Arizona State, and no wins inside the RPI Top 50 are the two things that in-fact do hurt them however. The Blazers must win their last four games to keep their hopes alive. If they do win their last four games, well then barring an absolute collapse in the Conference USA Tournament, UAB might once again go dancing in March.
- Gonzaga - (18-9, 8-3) 68 RPI - 80 SOS -
- Much like other preseason favorites Kansas State and Baylor, the Gonzaga Bulldogs have whiffed on numerous occasions to build their resumes throughout the season. The difference? Unlike those other two teams, Gonzaga is still whiffing. The Bulldogs ripped off two nice wins over Xavier and Oklahoma State in December, but haven't been able to do anything substantial since then. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent, but have suffered far too many inconsistent setbacks to teams like Santa Clara and San Francisco. Gonzaga will most likely need to win out, which would include a victory over Saint Mary's, in order to have legit hopes at becoming an at-large team. The Bulldogs have dropped two straight to the Gaels and desperately need the victory to boost their resume. Gonzaga has lost many close games to teams in the RPI Top 50 - a list of teams that includes San Diego State, Notre Dame, Kansas State and Illinois just to name a few. Unfortunately for the Mark Few's team, losses only can take your resume so far when it comes to trying to get into the NCAA Tournament.
- Clemson - (17-9, 6-6) 76 RPI - 104 SOS-
- When you look at Clemson's NCAA Tournament resume, you quickly noticed that it is balanced in almost every category. That may sound good, but really it means nothing good at all for the Tigers. They do have some good wins against Florida State and Boston College, however they have a slew of bad losses to teams like South Carolina and Virginia. To add to that, more than half of their wins have come to lowly teams ranked 150 or worse in the RPI. Bottom line is, nothing Clemson has done all season can be considered impressive. They finish the season with three RPI Top 70 opponents, one of them being Duke, so they do have chances to improve their unimpressive resume before the NCAA Tournament rolls around. Even then, Clemson may need a good run in the ACC Tournament in-order to get serious looks come Selection Sunday.
- Penn State - (14-11, 7-7) 59 RPI - 33 SOS-
- If NCAA Basketball was a high school, Penn State would be that really nice kid that annoys the crap out of everyone and won't go away. You can't really stand him, and he always seems to go away and keep coming back, but you really have a hard time denying how nice he is. Same goes for Penn State this year. They keep getting beat and fall off the map, only to come back, beat a good team and prove they are a pretty decent product on the basketball court. The Nittany Lions got beat by Michigan, destroyed by Michigan State and pummeled by Illinois all within the span of 10 days. Just when everyone thought they had finally went away, the Nittany Lions bounced back with a blowout win over Northwestern, and a big home win over RPI Top 20 Minnesota at home on Thursday. Penn State still has a lot of work to do however if they wanna make the Big Dance. Games at Wisconsin, Northwestern and Minnesota, along with their final home game versus Ohio State all allow for Penn State to pick up solid wins to improve their resume. The issue is however that with a 14-11 record, they can really only afford to lose one game. Even then, Penn State may need a one or two win showing in the Big Ten Tournament to have an impressive enough resume to finally breakthrough and reach the NCAA Tournament again.
- Michigan - (15-11, 6-8) 61 RPI - 19 SOS-
- If the Wolverines had more RPI Top 50 victories, they may in-fact be in the NCAA Tournament as of right now. Unfortunately for them, wins over Harvard and Michigan State aren't enough to push them over the edge right now. The tough thing for Michigan to swallow is not just their eight losses to teams in the RPI Top 40, but how they lost all of those games. With those games coming against teams ranging from Kansas, to Ohio State and Purdue, the Wolverines have lost them all by an average of 7 points per game. An overtime loss to Kansas in Ann Arbor still stings Michigan, especially after watching Kansas State miraculously leap back into NCAA Tournament discussion after their win over the Jayhawks. After a cupcake game against Iowa, Michigan has three opportunities to earn some good wins when they take on Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State. With one or two victories and a solid run in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan will have done enough to get strong consideration for a final spot in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota made a huge run with a similar record last season, and snuck in as an 11 seed. With a team like Michigan who can shoot lights out from three-point land, you never know if they can catch fire and blow through late February and early March on their way to an unlikely bid.
- Virginia Commonwealth - (20-8, 12-4) 67 RPI - 149 SOS-
- Well, this is rather interesting, isn't it? Tonight, Virginia Commonwealth strolled into Wichita State and pulled off a gigantic resume boosting win in the Bracket Busters opener. The gutsy win launched the Rams right back into serious NCAA Tournament discussion. Add that win to wins over RPI Top 40 teams such as UCLA and Old Dominion, and you have a nice resume if you are the Rams. Unfortunately for them, we haven't added in their three RPI Sub 150 losses from this season. Those losses, including getting smacked in the face at home this past week by George Mason have punched a few holes in a promising resume. With two easy games left, Virginia Commonwealth will need a solid run in a tough CAA Conference Tournament in-order to get serious looks come Selection Sunday. If the Rams can beat a team like Old Dominion, or potentially in a rematch with George Mason, then things will start to get serious.
- Washington State - (17-9, 7-7) 72 RPI - 103 SOS-
- Finally, we have a Washington State team that is also a candidate for the award of the "Most Meek Resume." A win over Washington looks good, but when it is your only "big time" win, well, then you have some work to do. The thing that hurts Washington State is the fact that they not only have a very weak streak of schedule, but that they have a very weak strength of schedule in a weak power conference. Games against UCLA and Washington to close out the season will serve as good opportunities to turn their resume into an above average one, but even that might not be enough. The Pac-10 seems far too destined to be a three-bid conference, and with Arizona, UCLA and Washington all more likely candidates, things don't look too good for the Cougars. A run to the Pac-10 title game may be what is required to find themselves back into the NCAA Tournament this season. Having 12 victories all come against team ranked worse between 118 and 344 in the RPI will certainley put you in that kind of a situation.
Who made the bracket:
American East - Vermont
Atlantic Coast - Boston College, Duke*, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Atlantic 10 - Temple*, Xavier
Big East - Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh*, St. John's, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - Coastal Carolina
Big Ten - Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State*, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII - Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - George Mason*, Old Dominion
Conference USA - Memphis*
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Princeton
Metro Atlantic - Fairfield
Mid-American - Miami (OH)
Mid-Eastern - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Wichita State*
Mountain West - Brigham Young, Colorado State, Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State*
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Morehead State
Pacific-10 - Arizona, Washington, UCLA
Patriot - Bucknell
Southeastern - Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky*, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southern - Charleston
Southland - Texas State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic
Southwestern - Texas Southern
Western (WAC) - Utah State
West Coast - St. Mary's*
* - Automatic Bid
Italic - New Addition
---------------------------------------------------
Conference Bids
Big East - 11
Big Ten - 6
Southeastern - 6
Big XII - 6
Atlantic Coast - 5
Mountain West - 4
Pacific-10 - 3
Atlantic Ten - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Colonial Athletic - 2
Horizon League - 1
West Coast - 1
---------------------------------------------------
Bracket Notes
Last Four In
- Baylor
- Michigan State
- Missouri State
- Colorado State
First Four Out
- Richmond
- Alabama-Birmingham
- Gonzaga
- Clemson
Next Four Out
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Virginia Commonwealth
- Washington State
Also Considered
- Texas-El Paso
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Duquesne
- Southern Mississippi
- Colorado
- Dayton
- Cleveland State
- Valparaiso
1st Round Games
12 - Michigan State vs. Colorado State
12 - Baylor vs. Missouri State
16 - Long Beach State vs. Hampton
16 - Texas State vs. Texas Southern
New Additions (Power Conferences)
- Kansas State
- Colorado State
- Baylor
- Alabama
- George Mason
Dropped Out (Power Conferences)
- Virginia Commonwealth
- Duquesne
- Gonzaga
- Penn State
- Cleveland State
---------------------------------------------------
NCAA Tournament Seeding
#1 Seeds -
- Pittsburgh, Texas, Ohio State, Kansas
#2 Seeds -
- San Diego State, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Duke
#3 Seeds -
- Brigham Young, Georgetown, Purdue, Wisconsin
#4 Seeds -
- Florida, Villanova, Louisville, Vanderbilt
#5 Seeds -
- Syracuse, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arizona
#6 Seeds -
- St. John's, Temple, Missouri, Kentucky
#7 Seeds -
- West Virginia, Xavier, George Mason, Tennessee
#8 Seeds -
- Washington, Illinois, California L.A., Nevada-Las Vegas
#9 Seeds -
- Florida State, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Utah State
#10 Seeds -
- Memphis, Kansas State, Old Dominion, Alabama
#11 Seeds -
- Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Georgia, Marquette
#12 Seeds -
- Boston College, Wichita State, Michigan State vs. Colorado State, Baylor vs. Missouri State
#13 Seeds -
- Butler, Belmont, Oakland, Coastal Carolina
#14 Seeds -
- Princeton, Fairfield, Charleston, Morehead State
#15 Seeds -
- Vermont, Miami (OH), Bucknell, Long Island
#16 Seeds -
- Florida Atlantic, Montana, Long Beach State vs. Hampton, Texas Southern vs. Texas State
Procedural Bumps (Seeding Adjustments) -
- Old Dominion - Down to 11
- Virginia Tech - Up to 10
- Marquette - Down to 12
- Wichita State - Up to 11
- Minnesota - Down to 12
- Boston College - Up to 11
---------------------------------------------------
The Bracket
---------------------------------------------------
Any thing to say to @JeffDLowe about the brackets?
Contact on Twitter: @JeffDLowe or E-Mail: JeffDBrackets@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment